Darth Trump: The Populist Vibe Strikes Back
As a second Trump administration, like a somewhat cloudy morning, continues to dawn — or, for his opponents, darkly descends — on America, an interesting and unusual discussion has emerged over the broader meaning of his victory. I know this because the subject comes up constantly with the group of wonderful nitwits I regularly have breakfast with, who are much smarter than I am. Oh, c’mon…you don’t actually think I come up with ALL these topics to write about, do you? Anyway...one thing that makes it unusual is that there is more consensus than disagreement about this fundamental point: There has been a significant “vibe shift” in American politics.
Now, that is not the way things typically work in politics. Every victorious party claims a “new era” of some kind, and the losing side usually dissents. That’s because, historically, ideologues and activists are sufficiently confident (and invested) in their views to insist any mere electoral defeat was a fluke or one-off — flawed candidates, flawed campaigns, economic conditions, whatever. “Our ideas aren’t the problem, we just nominated the wrong candidate” has long been the traditional ideological, psychological and political safe harbor for losers.
It’s not that the 2024 election doesn’t offer plenty of fodder for such interpretations. Trump’s win was modest. His electoral college margin ranks 44th out of 60 contests. He won the popular vote by 1.5 points; not exactly a landslide. Kamala Harris who, let’s be honest, was far from an ideal candidate, had little time to put together a campaign. Joe Biden was enduringly unpopular and physically/mentally inadequate to the job. Inflation is political cancer for any incumbent. And we heard all that during the traditional recriminations phase right after the election.
But the “vibe-shift” conversation is about something more fundamental than finger-pointing. Trump’s “cultural victory” felt “tectonic,” in the words of New York Times columnist Ezra Klein. I mean, it really felt like a 1984 Reagan landslide, didn’t it? Klein suggests four factors for why this might be: The right has the upper hand on social media; corporations are looking for an opportunity to swing back to the middle after lurching left; Trump benefits from a “bro” backlash against an allegedly feminized culture; and Joe Biden allowed Trump to stay at the the center of attention during his entire presidency.
It’s not that the 2024 election doesn’t offer plenty of fodder for such interpretations. Trump’s win was modest. His electoral college margin ranks 44th out of 60 contests. He won the popular vote by 1.5 points; not exactly a landslide. Kamala Harris who, let’s be honest, was far from an ideal candidate, had little time to put together a campaign. Joe Biden was enduringly unpopular and physically/mentally inadequate to the job. Inflation is political cancer for any incumbent. And we heard all that during the traditional recriminations phase right after the election.
But the “vibe-shift” conversation is about something more fundamental than finger-pointing. Trump’s “cultural victory” felt “tectonic,” in the words of New York Times columnist Ezra Klein. I mean, it really felt like a 1984 Reagan landslide, didn’t it? Klein suggests four factors for why this might be: The right has the upper hand on social media; corporations are looking for an opportunity to swing back to the middle after lurching left; Trump benefits from a “bro” backlash against an allegedly feminized culture; and Joe Biden allowed Trump to stay at the the center of attention during his entire presidency.
Personally, I don’t fundamentally object to any of these as partial explanations, but they don’t fully capture what seems to be happening or why progressives are willing to agree that something more fundamental has changed. For instance, another important factor is that MAGA is part of a larger global phenomenon. Populism and nationalism have been on the rise in Europe, Latin America and India. History is often punctuated by such moments (for example, remember the student protest movements that erupted around the world in the 1960s). The trends that have shaped recent American politics — the global financial crisis, mass immigration, COVID, inflation — were not contained only within our borders.
But I think the most important driver of the vibe shift is that Trump and Trumpism have shattered an almost metaphysical consensus about politics, on the right and the left.
Here’s what I believe; Pre-Trump American conservatism, going back decades, was dedicated to a few fundamental propositions: limited government, cultural traditionalism, antiabortion politics, fiscal rectitude and free market economics/free trade. Now, I’m the first to concede the Right often fell short of its ideals, like all political parties do, but at least showing rhetorical homage to the ideals was the binding firmament of conservatism. Those commitments still get some lip-service but there is no denying that on all of these fronts, loyalty to Trump is the more pressing litmus test (a subject I will return to down the road). This has freed up Trump to move leftward on abortion, entitlements and economic policy generally. I mean, just look at the recent 15-minute trade war Trump had with Mexico and Canada! Really? Are you kidding me? No true conservative would ever utter the word, “tariff.” It’s Free Trade, baby! I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again: Trump is no conservative. He is an entrepreneur and a bully, who never got his ass kicked as a teenager; who thinks he is running a corporation instead of one of 3 branches in a republican (small “r”) government. I’m pretty sure the man couldn’t spell the word, conservative.
But I think the most important driver of the vibe shift is that Trump and Trumpism have shattered an almost metaphysical consensus about politics, on the right and the left.
Here’s what I believe; Pre-Trump American conservatism, going back decades, was dedicated to a few fundamental propositions: limited government, cultural traditionalism, antiabortion politics, fiscal rectitude and free market economics/free trade. Now, I’m the first to concede the Right often fell short of its ideals, like all political parties do, but at least showing rhetorical homage to the ideals was the binding firmament of conservatism. Those commitments still get some lip-service but there is no denying that on all of these fronts, loyalty to Trump is the more pressing litmus test (a subject I will return to down the road). This has freed up Trump to move leftward on abortion, entitlements and economic policy generally. I mean, just look at the recent 15-minute trade war Trump had with Mexico and Canada! Really? Are you kidding me? No true conservative would ever utter the word, “tariff.” It’s Free Trade, baby! I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again: Trump is no conservative. He is an entrepreneur and a bully, who never got his ass kicked as a teenager; who thinks he is running a corporation instead of one of 3 branches in a republican (small “r”) government. I’m pretty sure the man couldn’t spell the word, conservative.
As damaging as I think this has been to conservatism, Trump’s victory may prove to be more damaging to the left. Because Trump didn’t merely shatter the consensus on the right, he shattered the political consensus generally. Or maybe social media and those other trends were the battering rams and Trump merely benefited from the new landscape.
Either way, the fact remains that the bedrock assumptions about how politics “works” and the rules for what a politician can or cannot do, no longer seem to apply. Politically, we live in a different world than we did just a couple of months ago. We’re all familiar with how his juvenile behavior has demonstrated parts of that different world, but it has also illuminated that the electorate itself is just different today. The FDR coalition is gone; the white working class is now operationally conservative; and the Latino and Black working classes are now seen as gettable by Republicans. The assumption that they are “natural Democrats” was obliterated in this election. Republicans have figured out how to talk to those constituencies.
Either way, the fact remains that the bedrock assumptions about how politics “works” and the rules for what a politician can or cannot do, no longer seem to apply. Politically, we live in a different world than we did just a couple of months ago. We’re all familiar with how his juvenile behavior has demonstrated parts of that different world, but it has also illuminated that the electorate itself is just different today. The FDR coalition is gone; the white working class is now operationally conservative; and the Latino and Black working classes are now seen as gettable by Republicans. The assumption that they are “natural Democrats” was obliterated in this election. Republicans have figured out how to talk to those constituencies.
I mean, think about that for a second. The huge increase in Black and Latino voters for Trump was stunning! And this was with a woman of color carrying the banner for the other side. I’ve already opined about what I think were Harris’ shortcomings here. What I didn’t say in the piece, was this: My friends on the Left have been bitching and moaning about the election...and that’s fine. But what they don’t seem to get is that to win, you need to nominate strong candidates, who at the very least, are just a little likable. Just a little, right? I then say to them if they think that Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris were at least a little likable, then they have bigger problems than Trump.
Meanwhile, progressives who grew up knowing only the language of FDR-era class politics or post-civil rights-era racial and feminist discourse have found that LARGE numbers of voters — their voters — don’t want to hear it anymore. They are simply tired of identity politics. And that disorienting feeling, the sense that history or demography or the “moral arc of the universe” might not be bending in your direction anymore? That is what someone like me calls...a “vibe shift.”
Write to Peter: magtour@icloud.com
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